Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Stitched Lakers Jerseys . Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Cheap Lakers Jerseys . Louis and Ryan Kesler have demanded to be traded. Wholesale Lakers Jerseys . The Wizards announced Friday that Webster had surgery to repair a herniated disc in his lower back. The operation was performed Thursday in Los Angeles. https://www.lakersjerseycheap.com/ . Leaning forward with both hands on his knees, Buffon appeared to be resting or somehow trying to withstand the rain. Or perhaps the 36-year-old goalkeeper and Italy captain was reflecting on this: He is only the third player in history to be part of five World Cup squads, along with Germany great Lothar Matthaus and former Mexico goalkeeper Antonio Carbajal.PITTSBURGH – Brett Lawrie started at second base as the Blue Jays ventured into a National League Park for the first time this season. Both Lawrie and his manager agree it isnt preferable. What it is: a consequence of a game played without the designated hitter. "Im a third baseman," said Lawrie. "Im not a third base/second base guy. Im a third baseman and thats my position. Im not necessarily going over there thinking Im going to be Chase Utley tonight. Im just going to try to make the routine play and roll a double play if we can. "Its for the team and if it gives us a chance to win than thats how it has to be." "All were trying to do is win a game," said manager John Gibbons. Lawrie has appeared in one game, for just one inning, at second base this season. He started six games at second base last season when the Jays briefly considered a position switch. His longest tenure at second base came over two seasons in Milwaukees farm system, when he played 231 games at the position at Single-A and Double-A. He approached the evening as if he was playing a permanent exaggerated shift, which sees Lawrie shift over to the right side of the infield against noted left-handed pull hitters. "Im not uncomfortable about it," said Lawrie. "Im a third baseman. I dont necessarily like going across the diamond and playing second base because Im not a second baseman. Im here to play third base but if it helps the team, thats what Im here to do." The position change is temporary while the Jays trudge through Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and it wont be daily. Gibbons expects Lawrie to return to third base on Saturday as Francisco retreats to the bench when the Pirates go a left-hander, Francisco Liriano. "We win more games when we score more runs," said Gibbons. "Weve been giving up runs. A lot of its based on what Franciscos done since he got here. We didnt know what we had but hes hit pretty well. Its one bat, a short right field wall and we think we need some production. Well give it a try and if it doesnt work well move on from that. &"It would be no different if Adam Lind was here," said Gibbons. Lakers Jerseys 2020. "Youd try to get his bat in the lineup and itd probably be Eddie over at third, you know." With the demotions of Ryan Goins and Jonathan Diaz in recent days, it appears the Blue Jays are veering away from the all-glove, no-bat options, willing to trade a bit of defence for improved offence. Friday nights defensive alignment falls in line with the previous decisions. "Even with the great defence were still below .500 so its not like were sitting there, five games over and you could say ... you know what I mean," said Gibbons. STIFF QUADRICEPS SIDELINES NAVARRO The Blue Jays recalled catcher Erik Kratz from Triple-A Buffalo and optioned right-hander Chad Jenkins to the Bisons on Friday. Kratzs recall was necessitated by Dioner Navarros stiff right quadriceps muscle, which he injured late in Thursdays win at Kansas City. "It was the first time Ive ever felt anything in my quad," said Navarro. "Ive had problems with my hamstrings before; nothing with my quads so it was kind of strange." Navarro is listed as day to day. He didnt play on Friday and isnt scheduled to be in Saturdays lineup anyway with R.A. Dickey due to pitch. "Were going to be really careful with it," said Navarro. JANSSEN INCHING CLOSER Casey Janssen threw another bullpen session on Friday and pronounced himself ready to go out on a minor league rehabilitation assignment. Hell join Double-A New Hampshire in time for its game on Monday against Binghamton. No return date has been set but Janssen will need multiple appearances, including on back-to-back days. RAIN DELAYS LINDS RETURN TO GAME ACTION Adam Lind was supposed to play in an extended spring training game on Friday in Dunedin, Florida, but the game was rained out. Gibbons says Lind took ground balls indoors and will be in game action on Saturday, weather permitting. The hope is for Lind to return in the middle of next week, possibly when the Blue Jays play host to the Philadelphia Phillies. ' ' '